Prediction Markets Are Efficient at Rest and Dislocated in Motion
In Plain Terms
Comparing prediction-market prices for the same sporting events on Kalshi and Polymarket, we find the two venues agree closely in their overall accuracy but can briefly diverge in price during live games, gaps that shrink once real trading fees and delays are factored in.
Key Contributions
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Artifacts
Related Papers
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Citation
Benjamin M. Ampel & Joseph Buckman (2027). Prediction Markets Are Efficient at Rest and Dislocated in Motion. In *Proceedings of the 60th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS)*
Benjamin M. Ampel
Assistant Professor in Computer Information Systems and Director, Center for CyberAI Research (CCAIR)
My research focuses on AI-enabled Cybersecurity, including Cyber Threat Intelligence, Large Language Models, and Phishing Detection.